Road to TE1: Dalton Kincaid

In his first year in the league, Dalton Kincaid quickly overtook Dawson Knox as the starting tight end in Buffalo and slowly developed as the year progressed to finishing as the fantasy TE11 in PPR leagues. In his second season, Kincaid has everything he needs to truly breakthrough as an elite tight end.

Already one of the most athletic tight ends in the NFL, Kincaid's speed was evident early on, though he struggled to find his niche on a team with Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis dominating targets. But in the second half of the season, Kincaid fully separated himself from Knox as the top tight end on the team and soon after gained the approval of Josh Allen.

In the final 11 games of the season, Kincaid averaged 6.54 targets per game, seeing seven or more targets in seven different contests. His overall target share was not high but seeing that he only saw 3.8 targets per game in the first five weeks of the season, his end-of-year production is encouraging moving forward.

In his second season, Kincaid will not only begin the year as the set-in-stone starting tight end over Knox but will immediately have a chance to take a full leap to being Allen's top target. Diggs, who saw 29 percent of the team's total targets in 2023, was traded in the offseason to Houston with Davis moving on to Jacksonville. Other than Kincaid, Khalil Shakir will be the only significant player returning in the team's passing game.

How Dalton Kincaid can become the fantasy TE1 in 2024

Early in the preseason, most are expecting rookie Keon Coleman to become Josh Allen's new favorite target with Stefon Diggs no longer on the roster. Beyond Coleman, the hype behind a third-year breakout from Khalil Shakir has grown, but few are considering Kincaid as a possible candidate to be Allen's next running mate.

Behind Diggs in 2023, Kincaid was actually second on the team with 91 targets and 73 receptions. He was surpassed by Gabe Davis in receiving yards but the overall usage suggests he is already Allen's safety blanket. In his six years of experience, Allen has never heavily relied on a tight end but has never played with one as skilled as Kincaid.

Should Kincaid become Allen's No. 1 receiver, that role has been proven to be valuable in previous fantasy years. Diggs is obviously the biggest example of that with his four years in Buffalo being the best of his career as he blossomed into an elite receiver.

Even before Diggs joined the team in 2020, John Brown and Cole Beasley put up consistent statistical performances in 2019. In standard leagues, Brown finished as the WR20 with Beasley right behind him as the WR35.

Assuming Kincaid cannot rise above Coleman and Shakir as the team's leading receiver, he will at worst repeat his role from 2023. It is hard to imagine a player with his physical gifts performing worse with the current roster than he did in his rookie season behind Diggs and Davis.

Had he seen the same volume he did in the final 11 weeks of the season for the entire year, Kincaid would have been on track for 105 targets on the year which would have been the seventh-most in the league. All signs point to a fantasy eruption from Kincaid in 2024 with an overall TE1 finish fully within reach.