Road to WR1: Garrett Wilson

Making sure to grab at least one superstar wide receiver in drafts is probably the most important thing you can do in fantasy, especially in PPR leagues. Luckily the depth of the wide receiver position in the NFL provides multiple players have a large range of outcomes to put themselves in a position to be the WR1 in fantasy this season, including New York's Garrett Wilson.

Wilson was taken by the New York Jets with the 10th pick in the 2022 NFL Draft. The star receiver out of Ohio State was instantly thrust into the much-needed WR1 position for the Jets, earning 147 targets in his rookie season.

Statistically, Wilson has had nearly identical seasons in both 2022 and 2023. In 2022, he had 83 receptions for 1,103 yards and four touchdowns. In 2023, he had 95 receptions for 1,042 yards and three touchdowns. This was good enough for a WR21 finish in 2022 and a WR26 finish in 2023 in PPR leagues.

On paper, this doesn’t look elite, but looking beyond the stats, Wilson has dealt with arguably the worst quarterback play in the league during his first two seasons. He has dealt with a quarterback carousel of Zach Wilson, Mike White, Joe Flacco, Trevor Siemian and Tim Boyle. Due to the less-than-subpar quarterback play, Wilson's big play ability was capped, giving him a lowered ceiling.

Talent-wise, it is reasonable to call Wilson a top-five wide receiver in the league. Few receivers have better separation ability and his route running is crisp due to his quick feet, explosiveness and IQ. Davante Adams and Justin Jefferson rightfully receive a lot of credit but Wilson is right with them as arguably the best route runner in the league.

How Garrett Wilson can level up to the overall WR1

It’s already known that Wilson has the talent to become the WR1, it’s just a matter if he can get the help he needs.

It was believed that 2023 was going to be the season Wilson got good quarterback play with Aaron Rodgers joining the team. Unfortunately, Rodgers’ season came to an abrupt end four snaps into Week 1 with an Achilles tear.

Nobody expects Rodgers to be elite, as he is 40 years old and coming off a devastating injury. However, if Rodgers can just be an average quarterback, that is already an upgrade from the quarterback play Wilson has had, as every quarterback who has thrown to him has not been a starting-caliber NFL quarterback. That alone could be enough to bring Wilson into the overall WR1 competition.

in 2024, Wilson will have minimal competition for targets. The Jets signed Mike Williams to a one-year contract, but Williams has never been a receiver who demands a lot of targets. He is more of a contested catch receiver and has only had more than 93 targets in a season once in his career. Williams is also almost guaranteed to miss time every season due to how hard his style of play is on his body.

The Jets also drafted Malachi Corley out of Western Kentucky in the third round of the 2024 NFL Draft. He profiles as a bright prospect, but he figures to find his niche as a slot receiver in his rookie season who will not demand many targets just yet.

No other player at the position is a viable threat to Wilson's target share with the rest of the depth chart. Starting tight end Tyler Conklin also likely won’t be a focal part of the offense. This offense will funnel through Garrett Wilson and Breece Hall.

With the upgrade at quarterback, expect Wilson to get a lot more deep looks and a lot more accurate passes on those deep looks. In 2023, Wilson had just 20 targets on passes of 20+ yards, and only caught five of them, mainly due to the lack of catchable deep balls. With Rodgers at the helm, expect that to improve tremendously in 2024. Wilson can also expect to be a lot more involved in the red zone with Rodgers having an affinity for fade routes as he showed with Davante Adams in Green Bay.

All signs point to Garrett Wilson having a monster season in 2024 if Rodgers can be anything close to the player we have come to expect.