Road to WR1: Justin Jefferson

From the moment he put on a Minnesota Vikings jersey in 2020, Justin Jefferson has dominated the NFL and taken the fantasy world by storm. With a WR1 finish in 2022 already under his belt, Jefferson has already proven his ceiling is limitless but will play under different circumstances in 2024.

Statistically, Jefferson had the worst year of his career in 2023. His numbers were career lows across the board. But the down year on paper did not affect his stock with Jefferson missing seven games due to injury and accumulating 1,000 yards in just 10 games.

Even with the injury, Jefferson still finished as the WR26 in standard leagues, ahead of players such as Rashee Rice, Zay Flowers, Garrett Wilson and Chris Godwin; all of whom played the entire season. Jefferson's seasonal production was further limited in his return from injury in Week 14 as he would finish out the final five games of the year without Kirk Cousins, who ruptured his Achilles in Week 8.

The quarterback situation was not ideal to end the year but is one that Jefferson will have to get used to after likely catching his final pass from Cousins. The quarterback chose not to resign with the team in free agency after getting a massive offer from the Atlanta Falcons, leading to Jefferson forced to begin 2024 with Sam Darnold under center.

How Justin Jefferson can return to form as the overall WR1

Minnesota drafted JJ McCarthy 10th overall in the 2024 NFL Draft but until the team is ready to unleash their quarterback of the future, Sam Darnold is expected to be the signal caller. Needless to say, a quarterback who has thrown nearly as many interceptions as he has touchdowns in his six-year career is a significant downgrade from the gunslinger that was Kirk Cousins.

Even with Cousins out of the picture, Jefferson still posted three serviceable lines in fantasy during the five weeks he was catching passes from third-string quarterback Nick Mullens. Not much separates Mullens from Darnold from a skill perspective, suggesting there will still be an opportunity to stuff the stat sheet even with a lowered floor.

In his two full seasons with the Jets to begin his career, Darnold could not support a single 1,000-yard receiver but averaged over 30 passes per game each year. His volume and overall production lowered in his third year but increased in 2021 to 33 pass attempts per game, though a measly 6.2 yards per attempt. In the right opportunity, he can still sling the rock.

In Kevin O'Connell's offense, Darnold could have a chance to throw the ball more than ever before, especially with 29-year-old Aaron Jones leading an uninspiring backfield. As one of the biggest target vacuums in the league, there Darnold will look to more often than not. To reclaim his former overall WR1 throne, Jefferson will need to see an overwhelming amount of volume in all aspects of the game to overcome the inevitable inefficiency Darnold will present.

Overall, there is not a lot to get excited about with the Minnesota offense in 2024 beyond Jefferson. But for fantasy purposes that is all that matters and while he will certainly need sustainable help from his teammates, a return to WR1 status is not out of the picture.