2024 fantasy football mock draft: First-round predictions for 12-team leagues

Fantasy football drafts can be hard to approach. As fun as they are to prepare for, they can still be stressful, and predicting the next lottery ticket can sometimes be easier than guessing what pick your league-mates will make.

In any situation, no fantasy manager ever gets their ideal draft. Players will get stolen and the minute everybody gets per pick feels like an eternity to wait out but not enough time once it is your time to decide. Being prepared for all scenarios is much easier said than done.

While we cannot predict what every player in every league will do, we can map out what we believe will be the ideal first round of a fantasy draft. Note that this mock draft is based on a 12-team league playing under a PPR rule set.

Based on our in-depth research, rankings and year-long predictions, here is Fantasy CPR's ideal first-round mock draft.

1:1 Christian McCaffrey (RB), San Francisco 49ers

McCaffrey is ranked at No. 3 in our preseason running back rankings but he is still the safe pick at No. 1 overall. The obvious concerns are there with his age and the odds of him repeating his touchdown success from 2023 are slim. Either way, his 2,023 total yards cannot be ignored, and in an offense as efficient as San Francisco's, there is no better place for McCaffrey to attempt to squeeze out a few more elite seasons in the back half of his career.

More: Road to RB1: Christian McCaffrey

1:2 CeeDee Lamb (WR), Dallas Cowboys

Even with the contract dispute, Lamb is the clear-cut WR1 after he finished as the top receiver in 2023 with over 1,700 receiving yards. The passing volume of the offense is elite and with Michael Gallup retiring in the offseason, more targets are up for grabs considering his in-house replacement, Jalen Tolbert, has a career-high of just 268 yards. There are no justifiable reasons why Dallas should not give Lamb the contract he desires ahead of his age-25 season, making him still the top receiver until the holdout risk becomes more realistic.

More: Road to WR1: CeeDee Lamb

1:3 Bijan Robinson (RB), Atlanta Falcons

Per our estimations, Robinson will finish as the best overall fantasy running back in 2024. Despite just 1,463 total yards in 2023, Robinson received just 12.6 carries per game in Arthur Smith's run-heavy offense, a puzzling misuse of his talent that will theoretically no longer be an issue. Behind a top-10 offensive line, Robinson is inarguably primed for a breakout year in the new-look Atlanta offense.

More: Road to RB1: Bijan Robinson

1:4 Breece Hall (RB), New York Jets

When it comes to the top running back options, Hall is right up there with both McCaffrey and Robinson as the leading candidates to end the year as the potential RB1. In a year that he was limited by his recovery from a torn ACL, Hall still managed 994 rushing yards with an additional 591 through the air and nine total touchdowns. That was all done in a Zach Wilson-led offense and without star guard Mekhi Becton. Aaron Rodgers' inclusion into the offense only gives Hall, who now has a full NFL season to his name, an improved outlook with New York also bolstering their offensive line with free agent acquisitions Tyron Smith and Morgan Moses.

More: Road to RB1: Breece Hall

1:5 Tyreek Hill (WR), Miami Dolphins

Entering his age-30 season, Hill has shown no signs of slowing down, posting the seventh-most receiving yards in a single season in NFL history with 1,799 in 2023. The difference between his WR2 finish and CeeDee Lamb's WR1 finish was a matter of a few points that could have been the result of Hill sitting out Week 12. Coming off a career year, health is the biggest concern for both Hill and his quarterback, Tua Tagovailoa, whom his value is indirectly dependent on. Regardless, Hill has topped 1,700 yards in both of his seasons with Miami and his elite usage gives him the highest ceiling of any receiver.

More: Road to WR1: Tyreek Hill

1:6 Jonathan Taylor (RB), Indianapolis Colts

People may have forgotten about Taylor but the last time he was fully healthy he finished as the RB1. Injury issues are an obvious concern, considering he has just one full season to his name, but behind a top-three offensive line, his ceiling is as high as any player in fantasy. In just 10 games splitting the backfield with Zack Moss in 2023, Taylor still had 894 all-purpose yards with eight touchdowns.

More: Road to RB1: Jonathan Taylor

1:7 Amon-Ra St. Brown (WR), Detroit Lions

Without the same name value as either CeeDee Lamb or Tyreek Hill, St. Brown is not considered in the overall WR1 conversation as much as he should be. With the age and injury issues Hill has and the ongoing contract headache of Lamb, St. Brown is looking like the safest first-round receiver of 2024. Injuries are also a small concern for St. Brown, who is a regular member of the injury report, but he has missed just two games in his three-year career.

More: Road to WR1: Amon-Ra St. Brown

1:8 Travis Etienne (RB), Jacksonville Jaguars

Etienne should not be going above either of the four running backs listed above but is still an excellent RB1 with a higher ceiling than some may realize. Despite his poor 3.8 yards per carry in 2023, Etienne still finished as the RB3 with a career-high 1,484 total yards and 12 touchdowns. Jacksonville's subpar offensive line received an upgrade over the offseason with the addition of Mitch Morse and with the usage Etienne sees in the Jacksonville offense, ending the year as the top running back is well within his reach.

More: Road to RB1: Travis Etienne

1:9 Puka Nacua (WR), Los Angeles Rams

Some may be put off with the return of a healthy Cooper Kupp but in the 13 games they played together in 2023, including the playoffs, Nacua recorded more receiving yards in eight of them. For the entire season, Nacua played in five more games but nearly had double the receiving yards as Kupp. The 31-year-old slot will never be written out of the offense, especially with the chemistry he has with Matthew Stafford, but Nacua has a firm grip on the WR1 job that is his to lose.

More: Road to WR1: Puka Nacua

1:10 Jalen Hurts (QB), Philadelphia Eagles

Most will point to Josh Allen as the best fantasy quarterback after his QB1 season in 2023 but if there is one to be taken in the first round, it should be Hurts. While Allen figures to go through some lumps figuring out his new receiving room, Hurts has only seen his passing yards increase each year of his career and should only continue that trend with Saquon Barkley now in his backfield. With the "tush push" still legal for at least one more year, the retirement of Jason Kelce was largely overrated as he will be replaced by former second-round pick Cam Jurgens while Philadelphia also brought in Mekhi Becton.

More: Road to QB1: Jalen Hurts

1:11 Jahmyr Gibbs (RB), Detroit Lions

Gibbs is a tricky player to figure out entering his second season, especially with his new hamstring injury and his timeshare in the backfield with David Montgomery. But even then, Gibbs is arguably the best playmaker of this offense playing behind a stone wall of an offensive line that has all five of its starters with a PFF grade over 70. Even with splitting snaps with Montgomery, Gibbs has the higher upside of the two with his receiving and red zone usage and an injury to his backfield partner would immediately vault him into the top tier.

More: Road to RB1: Jahmyr Gibbs

1:12 Kyren Williams (RB), Los Angeles Rams

Some may see Williams' 2023 as a fluke but even in his limited usage in 2022, he still averaged a respectable 4.0 yards per carry behind a middling offensive line. Remember, Los Angeles desperately tried to make Cam Akers work for years and it was not until Williams' emergence that they finally gave up on their former second-round pick. On the heels of his breakout season, Williams's usage should remain high in 2024 with the Rams making an effort to improve their offensive line by signing quality run blocker Jonah Jackson, giving the 23-year-old a fairly high floor.

More: Road to RB1: Kyren Williams