This is make or break. Championship or Toilet Bowl. For some Fantasy Football owners, this is their first chance to rebound from a horrible start. For others, this is the week where the downfall begins. Week four of the Fantasy and NFL season is the start of bye weeks, big time injuries, waiver wire masters, draft day blunders and most importantly the calming of the storm. Most owners are going to start relaxing at this point. Those who are 3-0, Owners who seem to never catch a break, Fantasy Football fanatics with 30 teams will forget to check 15 of them.
Week Four is here, and you cannot afford a bye work. Now is the time to capitalize on the mistakes of weeks past. Now is the time to take it to another level. Set your lineups, scour the waiver wire and keep your eyes on the injury report all the way up to Sunday morning. Until then, here is some news, notes and waiver wire pickups to watch heading into week four.
News and Notes:
Eric Mangini and the Cleveland Browns have been anything but exciting to start the 2009 season. Brady Quinn hasn’t performed fantasy and football wise. Then again, neither has Derek Anderson. The former backup was inserted at halftime against the Baltimore Ravens and threw three interceptions.
According to Fox Sports’ Jay Glazer, Derek Anderson has now been named the starter. This just adds to the nastiness that is the Cleveland Browns. From a fantasy perspective, Anderson is now running the worst offense in the league. And it is not like that defense is any better. They rank 29th in the league. For this week I stay away from Anderson, but this is the time of the year where a change in the lineup could mean a change in success or lack thereof. Keep an eye on Derek.
Speaking of quarterbacks who need to be removed from the fantasy universe, Jake Delholmme is still the starter in Carolina… For now. To begin the year, I thought that Jake the snake would be a solid backup option for fantasy owners. Now, I wouldn’t touch that thang with a ten foot pull. Delhomme has tossed seven picks and has been caused to fumble twice already this season. Beyond the turnovers, he hasn’t even been valuable. he has averaged 200 yards passing per game with just two touchdowns. Coach John Fox says his job is secure, so at this point you can shutdown any fantasy value at the signal caller position when it comes to North Carolina.
The running back position in week four is an utter mess. Kevin Smith is a game time decision for Detroit according to head coach Jim Schwartz. Frank Gore and Felix Jone are out. LaDainian Tomlinson is walking without a limp, but is still a game time decision. Knowshon Moreno is going to still split carries as he weens into the offense and Chris ‘Beanie’ Wells is still trying to learn the offense as we roll into week four. Throw onto the mix that Matt Forte can’t run the ball effectively, Derek Ward’s status is uncertain, Marion Barber has a sore quad, and Dick Jauron is going to split carries between his top two running backs. Sick of hearing about injured backs? Throw Willie Parker and Jamal Lewis into the mix. Both didn’t practice on Wednesday. Later we will break down some waiver wire pickups at the position, but without a doubt, this is the most ravaged position in week four.
At the wide receiver position, Wes Welker did practice today, but we have been down that road the last few weeks. He will be questionable and a game time decision yet again. Thanks to the Bill Belichik injury system, Fantasy owners will be yelling, cussing and curious all the way up to game time. Dwayne Bowe could practice later this week and improvement in the hamstring is possible, but I don’t see him going against the Giants. Even if he does the Giants defense is going to make it nearly impossible for the Chiefs offense to have a good day. Donnie Avery in St. Louis is healthy, and is a good play with Kyle Boller under center. Meanwhile Antonio Bryant made his debut last week for the Bucs, but with Josh Johnson starting, the offense will be run first, including at the quarterback position. One play that I really like this week is Braylon Edwards with Derek Anderson taking over the reigns. Anderson is comfortable with the deep ball, and Edwards will be the receiver to benefit from it.
Waiver Wire Pickups:
There is no doubt that with bye weeks here for Atlanta, Carolina, Arizona and Philadelphia, that the running back position this week is going to be key. Three of these four teams own a top tier running back, and that is a void you are going to want to fill. Fortunately this week is the week to do that.
With Frank Gore on the sidelines, Former Alabama running back Glen Coffee will be that brute force in the middle of that offense. He isn’t as shifty or fast as Gore, but he is bigger and I believe he will have some success on game day. Coffee impressed in the preseason, but filling in during week three he was not so hot. Keep in mind though that his next opponent is the St. Louis Rams and in week three against the Vikings, he carried the ball 25 times. I’ll take my chances with this kid having a big game on Sunday.
Another running back this week to watch is on the other side of the bay in Raiders pounder Michael Bush who will be going against that god awful rush defense of the Houston Texans. Bush might only see ten touches, but with a defense on the other side that is giving up 250 rushing yards, I’ll take the 10 carries. Now that the Lions have a win under the belt, and everything is normal in Detroit, Kevin Smith could be out a significant amount of plays, so Maurice Morris is a solid add this bye week.
Even though Detroit has a W in the win column, doesn’t mean that jokes against them are not allowed! With the Bears taking on the Kitties this week, you have to love the Bears Receiving Corps. Earl Bennett and Johnny Knox are both solid options with many top notch receivers on bye. Jay Cutler is finally connecting with his weapons and we saw what Santana “Show up against the Lions” Moss did against that secondary.
Other solid adds at the receiver include Pierre Garcon, Steve Smith, and Mike Sims-Walker, and Andre Caldwell. Garcon continues to do his groove thing with Peyton Manning, Caldwell has fourteen catches already this year and is quickly becoming the secondary target in Bengal Country, Mike Sims-Walker has 187 yards receiving in the past two weeks, with a struggling Titans secondary this weekend, and a beat up Seattle secondary in week five. Steve Smith, he is just amazing. For some reason he is only owned in 70% of leagues. Against the Chiefs, he is an instant much start for week four.
When it comes to signal callers, Fantasy owners will be missing McNabb, Matt Ryan, Kurt Warner and the cussing, arrests, murders and fantasy losses Jake Delhomme has caused so far this year. One solid option this week you would think could be Derek Anderson. Against Cincinnati he might be a good play, considering they are nineteen in pass defense. My favorites though this week are Kerry Collins, Josh Johnson and David Garrard. Collins will face one of the worst defenses in the NFL, Johnson has a Vick like capability to rush and throw. Against that Redskins defense that allowed Kevin Smith more than 100 yards in his limited touches is vulnerable to the big run play from the signal caller.
Synopsis:
This is the first week of the real challenge in all fantasy leagues. Do you have enough guts to start Josh Johnson or Johnny Knox? Are you going to spill the Glenn Coffee on your opponent and burn him like a fat cop’s leg at the local Dunkin’ Doughnuts? It’s time to wake up and realize that some of the stars can’t come out to play. So what if Mike Sims-Walker isn’t the next Jimmy Smith. Maybe Isaac Bruce and Bobby Wade have a few more solid games left in the tank. Don’t be afraid to go with your gut, and what the fantasy gods are telling you. Unless they keep whispering to play Michael Crabtree against the St. Louis Rams. Then you are in some big trouble my friend.
(For more fantasy insight on this week’s action make sure you catch Fantasy CPR Live on the Fantasy Sports Channel Saturday at 12 PM ET as Ben Standig of FFToolbox will join us to talk fantasy action. All weekend long the guys on the FSC will keep you on your toes before week four.)